{ "schema_version": "gcc-research-engine-v2.current-observation.v1", "generated_at": "2026-09-19T00:31:33Z", "observation_cutoff": "2026-09-18T23:31:39.523Z", "research_engine_version": "gcc-research-engine-v2", "runtime_engine_version": "re-1.0.0", "publication_status": "BOUNDED_IMMUTABLE_OBSERVATION", "backup_snapshot": { "id": "9f80f84f", "timestamp": "2026-09-18T23:33:26Z", "verification": "PASS", "contains_research_root": true }, "provenance": { "status": "PASS", "source_cutoff_rule": "Latest complete synchronized five-minute sensor window at or before the verified Restic backup cutoff; source timestamps may differ within that window.", "source_evidence": "Restic snapshot 9f80f84f streamed read-only; no live collector files were used.", "reproduction_method": "Parse the listed V2 JSONL streams, retain records at or before observation_cutoff, group Macro records by complete instrument cycle, group CO-1 records by complete five-pool cycle, and use the collector pairwise dispersion field where present.", "source_hashes": { "raw": { "data/raw/scout/scout-observations-202609.jsonl": "b9a09b1b98a8caadf000b8f9a2e2f36fb1a71e6bf0e6418e58c64736cb62c647", "data/raw/macro/macro-observations-202609.jsonl": "775a7c2e4e1d9bc906ab4add9959fe52b1af1f835e17a932aeca979dea95d079", "data/raw/co1/co1-observations-202609.jsonl": "c90b8eaab08bdfd86becddd848716191a1388c838230ae854e3bfc2c808c618b", "data/raw/scarcity/scarcity-observations-202609.jsonl": "56224e0829d5b06c58d61f3daacf4683234992484815b6951034602425d87955" }, "checkpoints": { "checkpoints/scout.json": "dab58df75cbf374f6bfbf8b18fb6ce6ddb043ea30a497d5e40b764a05e72cbee", "checkpoints/macro.json": "780f6bd48e28bdda8a7252bc97d41c3caea6a454ff299e67387cf63513adc972", "checkpoints/co1.json": "717de1b57fbcc9beab7ac27322780530a114a3131bb0647e557cda6569436633", "checkpoints/scarcity.json": "ceeee78b38eae4c7060ead147391430253d4f9cf0526922efe43a6b669445647" }, "manifests": { "manifests/runtime/scout.json": "c8033a481eaa18fad6396c61b64149c7396b411e5cc36e6482f0658e5c2eee02", "manifests/runtime/macro.json": "eabb0ebc368d85abc736a5497e140b8ca1c9a4642afb341fa3f0c25f2d6f5254", "manifests/runtime/co1.json": "3c786f7954ee42f927342b5c651e91840d837a39c32e6c350424d05c548da8ed", "manifests/runtime/scarcity.json": "98157d48a7647020040de7d2b4aa3816c2e1b068f487def7e34bb79475882a1b" }, "health": { "health/scout-v2.json": "cf51e9d181d4c4ddc5452ab1cfef84788856b7dc43d2e1f92f4e040c5969683a", "health/macro-v2.json": "d7250086fbe9b33497dfb7c0af577de021499cab3bbb83936bbdcffa4604952e", "health/co1-v2.json": "4bfae6a16ba404b332bb6d019602232b3f1256a254776a35883b5389a9aaa069", "health/scarcity-v2.json": "c0b01a0f884dd3fcfc6f274476ca519a2fab71a88c112c154f6e20e20cb910d5", "health/live-read-check.json": "e2878de214650138ec79af9face9dcd4f7445b6ab962d6ea09001db62faad634" }, "schemas": { "schemas/observation-contract.json": "50c01fab599490dd43ff8ef7674c3f27fbcfe96a799694d942672b0dd37f311d", "schemas/health-contract.json": "f66b96164a361450cfc10453893cda6fe1e2d4874eb57b9b2c0c2cc6b68d4c20" }, "archive": { "archive/historical-evidence-v1.json": "2366bfca4953d29e9917f7b96d898d2692936dd2719d305285e49b6c83b74053" } }, "source_schemas": { "raw_observations": "gcc-research-engine-v2.observation.v1", "collector_health": "gcc-research-engine-v2.health.v1", "checkpoints": "gcc-research-engine-v2.checkpoint.v1", "runtime_manifests": "gcc-research-engine-v2.runtime-manifest.v1" } }, "observation_window": { "first_observation": "2026-09-16T04:23:33.261Z", "last_observation": "2026-09-18T23:31:39.523Z", "synchronized_window_start": "2026-09-18T23:30:18.259Z", "synchronized_window_end": "2026-09-18T23:31:39.523Z", "timezone": "UTC", "synchronization_note": "Scout, Macro, and CO-1 terminal observations are within 82 seconds; Scarcity is lower cadence and its latest observation is reported separately." }, "status": { "research_engine": "OBSERVATION_ACTIVE_WITH_PARTIAL_COVERAGE", "scout": "ACTIVE", "macro": "ACTIVE", "co1": "DEGRADED_PARTIAL_ICC", "scarcity": "ACTIVE", "opportunity_engine_connected": false, "production_write": false }, "counts": { "scout": { "observations": 616, "baseline_required": 50, "baseline_history_count_at_cutoff": 615, "baseline_established": true, "z_score_available": 565, "unusual_absolute_z_at_least_2": 29 }, "macro": { "records": 2464, "complete_cycles": 616, "per_instrument": { "BNBUSDT": 616, "BTCUSDT": 616, "SOLUSDT": 616, "XAUTUSDT": 616 } }, "co1": { "records": 2965, "complete_five_pool_cycles": 593, "configured_pools": 5, "normalized_pools": 4, "dispersion_observations": 592 }, "scarcity": { "observations": 53 } }, "latest_blocks": { "co1": 122693727, "scarcity": 122692472 }, "freshness": { "threshold_seconds": 7200, "age_basis": "observation_cutoff", "state_at_generation": "CURRENT", "available_states": ["CURRENT", "STALE", "PARTIAL", "UNAVAILABLE", "HISTORICAL"], "ages_seconds_at_generation": { "scout": 3593.477, "macro": 3674.741, "co1": 3634.917, "scarcity": 4200.512 }, "ui_rule": "The presentation calculates age from observation_cutoff at render time; any snapshot older than threshold_seconds is shown as STALE." }, "scout": { "status": "ACTIVE", "observation_count": 616, "baseline_established": true, "unusual_observations_absolute_z_at_least_2": 29, "latest": { "timestamp": "2026-09-18T23:31:39.523Z", "source": "binance_public_rest", "evidence_status": "CURRENT", "divergence": 0.00027008530930426535, "z_score": 1.2805225673049883, "signal_status": "OBSERVATION_ONLY", "freshness_age_seconds": 3593.477, "freshness_state": "CURRENT" }, "publication_note": "No latest z-score is presented as a trading signal." }, "external_market_observation": { "source": "binance_public_rest", "evidence_status": "CURRENT", "instruments": { "BNBUSDT": {"value_usd": 762.37, "timestamp": "2026-09-18T23:30:18.259Z", "source": "binance_public_rest", "evidence_status": "CURRENT", "freshness_age_seconds": 3674.741, "freshness_state": "CURRENT"}, "BTCUSDT": {"value_usd": 80996.0, "timestamp": "2026-09-18T23:30:18.259Z", "source": "binance_public_rest", "evidence_status": "CURRENT", "freshness_age_seconds": 3674.741, "freshness_state": "CURRENT"}, "SOLUSDT": {"value_usd": 113.11, "timestamp": "2026-09-18T23:30:18.259Z", "source": "binance_public_rest", "evidence_status": "CURRENT", "freshness_age_seconds": 3674.741, "freshness_state": "CURRENT"}, "XAUTUSDT": {"value_usd": 4380.68, "timestamp": "2026-09-18T23:30:18.259Z", "source": "binance_public_rest", "evidence_status": "CURRENT", "freshness_age_seconds": 3674.741, "freshness_state": "CURRENT"} } }, "gcc_network": { "source": "bsc_json_rpc_read_only", "latest_block": 122693727, "pools": { "gcc-wbnb-pancakeswap": { "label": "PancakeSwap GCC/WBNB", "dex": "PancakeSwap", "paired_asset": "WBNB", "latest_timestamp": "2026-09-18T23:30:58.083Z", "source": "bsc_json_rpc_read_only", "data_quality": "GOOD", "evidence_status": "CURRENT", "freshness_age_seconds": 3634.917, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "gcc_relative_price": 0.000028812602831435552, "normalized_gcc_usd_price": 0.021958372743865348, "liquidity_depth_proxy": 604.3685651131924 }, "gcc-btcb-pancakeswap": { "label": "GCC/BTCB", "dex": "PancakeSwap", "paired_asset": "BTCB", "latest_timestamp": "2026-09-18T23:30:58.083Z", "source": "bsc_json_rpc_read_only", "data_quality": "GOOD", "evidence_status": "CURRENT", "freshness_age_seconds": 3634.917, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "gcc_relative_price": 0.00000027240396759830534, "normalized_gcc_usd_price": 0.022058183680240373, "liquidity_depth_proxy": 14.596965696977728 }, "gcc-wbnb-apeswap": { "label": "ApeSwap GCC/WBNB", "dex": "ApeSwap", "paired_asset": "WBNB", "latest_timestamp": "2026-09-18T23:30:58.083Z", "source": "bsc_json_rpc_read_only", "data_quality": "GOOD", "evidence_status": "CURRENT", "freshness_age_seconds": 3634.917, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "gcc_relative_price": 0.000028776308644420572, "normalized_gcc_usd_price": 0.02193071258099936, "liquidity_depth_proxy": 40.331144198414655 }, "gcc-sol": { "label": "GCC/SOL", "dex": "UNKNOWN_DEX", "paired_asset": "SOL", "latest_timestamp": "2026-09-18T23:30:58.083Z", "source": "bsc_json_rpc_read_only", "data_quality": "GOOD", "evidence_status": "CURRENT", "freshness_age_seconds": 3634.917, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "gcc_relative_price": 0.00020016261208116525, "normalized_gcc_usd_price": 0.022632386548017355, "liquidity_depth_proxy": 218.38346415317918 }, "gcc-icc": { "label": "GCC/ICC", "dex": "UNKNOWN_DEX", "paired_asset": "ICC", "latest_timestamp": "2026-09-18T23:30:58.083Z", "source": "bsc_json_rpc_read_only", "data_quality": "PARTIAL", "evidence_status": "PARTIAL", "freshness_age_seconds": 3634.917, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "gcc_relative_price": 0.22915847336457199, "normalized_gcc_usd_price": null, "liquidity_depth_proxy": 70435.11754321848, "icc_usd_normalization": "UNAVAILABLE" } } }, "dispersion": { "definition": "Collector pairwise_gcc_price_dispersion_bps across four defensibly USD-normalized pools; ICC excluded.", "source": "co1-v2 collector pairwise field", "evidence_status": "CURRENT", "freshness_age_seconds": 3634.917, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "latest_bps": 318.82274490410646, "latest_percent": 3.1882274490410465, "minimum_bps": 60.933521720968415, "minimum_percent": 0.6093352172096842, "median_bps": 211.37363504557428, "median_percent": 2.1137363504557427, "maximum_bps": 379.9462817417678, "maximum_percent": 3.799462817417678, "complete_observation_cycles": 593, "dispersion_observation_count": 592, "observation_window_start": "2026-09-16T04:23:34.214Z", "observation_window_end": "2026-09-18T23:30:58.083Z", "maximum_event": { "timestamp": "2026-09-18T19:21:10.635Z", "lowest_pool": "gcc-wbnb-apeswap", "highest_pool": "gcc-sol" }, "subsequently_declined": true, "first_observed_decline_timestamp": "2026-09-18T19:26:23.023Z", "approximate_time_to_decline_minutes": 5.206466666666667, "interpretation": "Observed price dispersion is descriptive and does not establish arbitrage, profitability, or trading intent." }, "price_behaviour": { "source": "derived from frozen V2 raw observations", "evidence_status": "CURRENT", "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "gcc-wbnb-pancakeswap-normalized-usd": { "first": 0.02064237056360538, "latest": 0.021958372743865348, "percentage_change": 6.375247339955292, "first_timestamp": "2026-09-16T04:23:34.214Z", "latest_timestamp": "2026-09-18T23:30:58.083Z" }, "bnb-usd": { "first": 716.01, "latest": 762.37, "percentage_change": 6.474769905448241, "first_timestamp": "2026-09-16T04:23:33.697Z", "latest_timestamp": "2026-09-18T23:30:18.259Z" }, "gcc-btcb": { "first": 0.020603463548915166, "latest": 0.022058183680240373, "percentage_change": 7.060561093873963, "first_timestamp": "2026-09-16T04:23:34.214Z", "latest_timestamp": "2026-09-18T23:30:58.083Z" }, "gcc-sol": { "first": 0.02020500359223755, "latest": 0.022632386548017355, "percentage_change": 12.013771463581268, "first_timestamp": "2026-09-16T04:23:34.214Z", "latest_timestamp": "2026-09-18T23:30:58.083Z" }, "gcc-wbnb-apeswap": { "first": 0.020604124752491574, "latest": 0.02193071258099936, "percentage_change": 6.438457563441835, "first_timestamp": "2026-09-16T04:23:34.214Z", "latest_timestamp": "2026-09-18T23:30:58.083Z" }, "descriptive_comparison": "During this observation window, Pancake GCC/WBNB normalized USD value rose approximately 6.38%, while BNB/USD rose approximately 6.47%.", "causation_qualification": "The similarity does not establish causation. Reserve-ratio and cross-pool attribution remain under analysis." }, "pool_position": { "basis": "592 cycles with four normalized pool values and collector dispersion present", "source": "derived from frozen co1-v2 normalized observations", "evidence_status": "CURRENT", "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "most_frequent_highest_normalized_pool": {"pool": "gcc-wbnb-pancakeswap", "count": 328}, "most_frequent_lowest_normalized_pool": {"pool": "gcc-btcb-pancakeswap", "count": 328}, "highest_counts": {"gcc-wbnb-pancakeswap": 328, "gcc-sol": 248, "gcc-wbnb-apeswap": 16}, "lowest_counts": {"gcc-btcb-pancakeswap": 328, "gcc-sol": 152, "gcc-wbnb-apeswap": 88, "gcc-wbnb-pancakeswap": 24}, "interpretation": "These are observed relative-price positions only; they are not labels of quality, profitability, or execution preference." }, "scarcity": { "interpretation": "ECONOMICALLY INACCESSIBLE BALANCE", "dead_address_balance_unit": "GCC", "first_observed_balance": 50775.2156550755, "latest_observed_balance": 50775.81812858609, "observed_change": 0.6024735105893342, "observed_change_percentage": 0.0011865503726893323, "first_block": 122156987, "latest_block": 122692472, "observation_count": 53, "observation_window_start": "2026-09-16T04:23:46.468Z", "observation_window_end": "2026-09-18T23:21:33.488Z", "source": "bsc_json_rpc_read_only", "evidence_status": "CURRENT", "freshness_age_seconds": 4200.512, "freshness_state": "CURRENT", "formal_burn_claim": false, "mechanism_statement": "The balance increased during the observation window. The mechanism has not yet been transaction-level attributed." }, "historical_boundary": { "historical_label": "HISTORICAL RESEARCH", "historical_window": "2024-08-01 → 2025-06-17", "current_label": "CURRENT OBSERVATION", "current_window": "Research Engine V2: 2026-09-16T04:23:33Z → publication cutoff", "raw_source_reproducibility": "UNAVAILABLE_SOURCE_LOSS", "historical_archive_changed": false, "note": "The original historical TA-1/LE-1 raw datasets are not represented as recovered by this snapshot." }, "limitations": [ "ICC/USD normalization is unavailable; GCC/ICC remains native-pool PARTIAL.", "CO-1 is degraded only because the ICC reference is not defensibly normalized; four pools support USD-normalized comparisons.", "Dispersion is descriptive and does not establish arbitrage, profitability, or trading intent.", "No transaction-level mechanism attribution is made for the economically inaccessible balance.", "This artifact is a bounded publication snapshot, not a live collector feed or execution input." ] }